Challenges
for Indonesia
- Maintaining
Macroeconomic Stability
Globalisation is not a new phenomenon, but any
major challenge to development is now being
linked to it. Many new problems arise in a
country that is in the process of opening up.
Changes in the external environment can compound
these problems. Developments in the global
capital market are seen to have substantially
eroded government controls over monetary policy.
This is a fact that has been duly recognised.
Some countries have difficulties accepting this
and have opted for preserving national
sovereignty. Others may see the value of the
disciplining effect of an open capital account.
Indonesia has fully liberalised its capital
account at a very early stage of its economic
recovery in the beginning of the 1970s to make a
credible commitment to its open door foreign
investment policy. In the process, its policy
makers discovered the utility of its disciplining
effect and made use of it during much of the
1970s and 1980s.
It has been argued that the crisis has
demonstrated that in the world of the 1990s this
market disciplining effect has grown out of
reasonable proportion. It needs to be recognised
that external shocks today, which tend to come
through the capital account, create greater
macroeconomic disturbances than shocks in the
past that were caused by changes in the terms of
trade, which worked their way through the current
account. Global capital can react so abruptly and
indiscriminately, leading to the crisis and its
regional contagion. It can punish misbehaviour or
a wrong policy harshly. Tan (1998) argued that
this development represents a power shift from
elected governments to speculators, bond traders
and fund managers, and that Prime Minister
Mahathir's visceral reactions towards George
Soros epitomise this painful power shift. In the
immediate aftermath of the attack on Malaysia's
currency, Mahathir campaigned for multilateral
efforts to control speculative movements of
capital. He pointed to the immorality of
speculative activities that could cause great
damage to an economy that is fundamentally sound.
Malaysia's decision in early September 1998 to
institute a system of capital and exchange
controls seems to follows from this.
The issue of capital controls has become a
discussion item in various policy fora.
Governments from industrialised countries have
rejected the idea of co-ordinated controls of
capital flows. Rubin's three-pronged plan has set
the preferred policy direction. The essence of
this plan is the strengthening of financial
systems through the establishment of global
standards, supported by surveillance to be
carried out by the IMF and the World Bank. Joseph
Stiglitz, chief economist at the World Bank,
argued that temporary controls on capital inflows
might be warranted. He argued that the force of
vast international capital flows, especially
short-term capital might overpower a well managed
but small economy. Such controls, along with
domestic reforms and greater disclosure, could
help reduce the frequency and magnitude of a
shock (Stiglitz, 1998). To strengthen his
argument, Stiglitz made two additional points.
First, net benefit of short-term capital is small
or even negative. It is not as valuable as
foreign direct investment, which brings with it
technology and training. In addition, when the
savings rate is already high and when the
marginal investment is misallocated, additional
short-term capital flows increase the
vulnerability of the economy. Finally, the net
benefit of short-term capital is further reduced
when the reserves set aside to protect against
the volatility of this type of capital are taken
into account. Second, together with solid
fundamentals and a sound financial system,
capital controls may be the reason that Chile has
been relatively unaffected by the 'tequilla
effect' of the Mexican crisis. Chile has
instituted three types of controls. First, 30
percent of all non-equity capital flowing into
Chile must be put as interest-free deposits at
the central bank for one year. Second, only if
rated as high as Chile's government bonds by two
bond-rating agencies can Chilean firms and banks
borrow from the international capital markets.
Third, any foreign money coming into Chile must
stay in the country for at least one year (The
Economist, 14 March 1998).
The issue of controls and regulations of capital
inflows will remain controversial. There is doubt
that such regulations can be effective. Unless a
very highly regulated financial system is
introduced there will always be loopholes. It
also is not plausible or sensible to put in place
a system that totally and permanently isolates
the economy from fluctuations in international
capital flows. Furthermore, there is the danger
that capital controls will be used to insulate
misguided economic policies from market
discipline or to delay much needed reform.
Countries that already liberalised its capital
account, such as Indonesia, cannot take a step
backwards without jeopardising the credibility of
its overall commitment to open economic policies.
At the onset of the crisis in Indonesia, the need
for some capital controls was considered, but
this was soon abandoned. It is believed that
countries that are in the process of opening up
should not experiment lightly with introducing
capital controls as this may provide the wrong
signals to the outside world.
It is a matter of empirical research whether
Chile was unaffected by the Mexican crisis
primarily because of the capital controls that it
has put in place or due to many other reasons. It
may well be the case, as suggested by Gavin,
Hausmann and Leidermann (1996), that Chile's
success lies in its ability to satisfy some form
of exchange rate commitment. The Mexican crisis
followed the devaluation of the peso. The effect
of being forced to abandon a regime that proved
to be unsustainable can be very destabilising.
The crisis in Thailand and its contagion followed
the devaluation of the baht in early July 1998.
The affected countries have also been forced to
abandon their policy of pegging their exchange
rate to a basket of currencies in which the
dollar weighted heavily. They have learnt the
hard way that their exchange rate policy is not
viable. The realisation that it is important to
have an exchange rate system consistent with an
open capital account has led the crisis-affected
countries to adopt a floating exchange rate. It
is believed that the crisis could have been
prevented if they had allowed the currency to
float freely much earlier. This would have
resulted in a reduction of domestic interest
rates and an appreciation of the currency in
response to the large inflows of capital,
resulting in increased current account deficit
and a slowing down of capital inflows.
Yet, in a sense Indonesia and other Southeast
Asian countries are still not fully comfortable
with a freely floating exchange rate. There have
been suggestions that sooner or later they may
want to adopt a managed float, a flexible system
which allows for some intervention. In this case,
macroeconomic adjustment to changes in capital
flows would depend on the degree of
sterilisation. Greater sterilisation would tend
to postpone the adjustment. Others suggest that
many developing countries lack the discipline to
maintain a credible commitment to a free float.
A fixed exchange regime has its attraction as a
means of enforcing commitment by the monetary
authority to a stable and non-inflationary policy
by reducing the scope for discretion in setting
monetary policy. Yet the issue here is whether
the commitment to the fixed exchange rate itself
is sufficiently strong. Garnaut (1998) has
described the conditions under which a commitment
to a fixed exchange regime can be undermined. The
problem arises not only in the wake of a sudden
large outflow of capital but also as a result of
large capital inflows. In the latter case, net
capital inflows will result in an immediate
accumulation of reserves. Without complete
sterilisation this will generate an increase in
the domestic monetary base. The increase in
liquidity will reduce domestic interest rates and
result in an expansion of bank credit. The
increase in domestic consumption and investment
may result in an economic boom, accompanied by an
appreciation of the real exchange rate.
Conventional wisdom suggests that the government
will have to adopt a policy of fiscal contraction
in order to limit the expansionary impact of the
large or sudden capital inflows.
In the case of a shock caused by a sudden
outflow, a sharp monetary contraction and a
forceful fiscal response can sustain the fixed
exchange regime. The first requirement suggests
the importance of a strong domestic financial
system. Monetary contraction brings about high
interest rates and results in a cutback of
domestic credits. Difficulties on the part of
corporations to service their debt can create a
banking crisis. The need for fiscal contraction
as well is derived from a sharp reduction in the
availability of non-inflationary financing of
fiscal deficits. It is interesting to note that
fiscal contraction appears to be the appropriate
response to both a sudden capital inflow and a
sudden capital outflow. Fiscal contraction often
proves to be politically difficult in response to
a sudden outflow of capital. The point here is
that it is not easy to maintain discipline and
coherence in policymaking.
It would be logical to expect that in a world of
highly mobile capital flows the appropriate
exchange rate regime would be one that can most
effectively insulate the economy from an external
shock. No strong consensus has emerged from the
Latin American experience on the insulating
properties of fixed or flexible exchange rates
(Gavin, Hausmann and Leidermann, 1996). The
recent experience in East Asia points to the same
conclusion. Singapore has a managed float
exchange rate policy and Hong Kong has adopted
the currency board system. Both have not been
seriously affected by the crisis. After all, what
is important may not be the exchange regime as
such but the credibility of the commitment to
maintaining it. Both Singapore and Hong Kong have
sizeable reserves and they have strong and open
financial systems. As Frenkel (1998) put it,
insulation from external shock should not be the
objective of exchange rate policy. Also, an
exchange rate system that will save a country
from policy mistakes has not been invented. He
proposed that the real issue is the adoption of
an exchange rate regime that is most conducive to
discipline in policymaking. This depends,
according to Frenkel, on the nature of the
country's institutions, on its policymakers, on
its history, and on the state of the inflation
cycle. To quote him, '[t]he danger is that in
deciding on an exchange rate regime, policymakers
will always think the grass on the other side is
greener and will endlessly move back and forth
between flexibility and fixity and thus fail to
confront the real issue, which is how to
establish discipline in policy making.'
(pp.106-107). Discipline in policymaking should
mean to include coherence in policymaking. The
previous discussion shows that this has been
visibly absence in Indonesia, especially in the
past ten years.
- Maintaining
Open Economic Policies
Credibility is the keyword. This is not just a
matter of macroeconomic policy but of the overall
strategy of economic reform. Thus far, the
Indonesian governments has not reversed their
overall strategy of economic growth and
development. In fact, all crisis-affected
countries in the region seem to support the view
that the commitment to open economic policies is
also critical for their recovery. The
IMF-supported reforms in Indonesia as well as in
Korea and Thailand contain substantial structural
reforms that will reinforce those commitments.
In their efforts to recapitalise the banks,
Indonesia and Thailand have amended their
regulations to allow unlimited foreign ownership.
Most large banks in Indonesia are technically
bankrupt and those in Thailand are severely
distressed. Malaysia's banking system is also
encountering some problems, and there may be
greater urgency for Malaysia to relax the 30
percent limit for foreign ownership of banks.
Indonesia and Thailand have no immediate
alternative, but recently some members of the
Indonesian parliament have expressed their views
that foreign ownership of banks must also be
limited in Indonesia. To begin to stabilise the
currency and the economy, they must urgently
rehabilitate the financial sector and work out a
solution to the problem of short-term private
debt. Pragmatism will dictate that they will have
to accept a return of foreign capital largely
through 'buy ins' of banks and corporations at
bargain prices rather than through 'bail outs'.
Take-overs and acquisitions, rather than
green-field investments, will be the name of the
game. Most of the capital is expected to come
from the US and Europe plus some from Singapore
and Hong Kong. New, green-field foreign direct
investment will be needed in the recovery
process. A widely open door foreign investment
policy has been an integral part of Indonesia's
open economic policy. As stated earlier, it has
opted for an internationally oriented strategy
with the objective to sustain growth and to
accelerate the catching-up process. Since the
1980s, when most Southeast Asian economies
abandoned their export promotion strategy to
embark on full trade liberalisation, they have
gone beyond the point of no return in their
liberalisation. The policy of export promotion
that predated trade liberalisation was perhaps a
correct sequencing. It stimulated exports, but
did little to improve the economy's overall
efficiency. The international environment during
the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade
negotiations also helped made an end to East
Asian strategy of 'double-distortion', namely
that of maintaining economic inefficiencies
caused by the high import barriers but
compensating them with subsidies and other
facilities to promoting export growth.
Indonesia and also Malaysia committed themselves
to open economic policies initially as a matter
of necessity as they saw a rapid dwindling of oil
revenues. But reforms in Thailand and the
Philippines in the 1980s were not driven by any
sense of a crisis. Instead they instituted
significant reforms during good times, possibly
because resistance to liberalisation weakened
under improved economic conditions (Bowie and
Unger, 1997). But once on the track of
liberalisation, all four countries elect to stay
on course. An important underpinning of this
commitment is the adoption of this same strategy
by all ASEAN economies, thus creating strong
demonstration effects and a dynamic environment
of competitive liberalisation. In the case of
Korea, the extremely strong motivation to become
a modern, industrialised economy that is on par
with Japan appears to be the factor behind its
global ambitions. Support from within the ASEAN
economies for a firm commitment to open economic
policies may be important for the process of
recovery. It is believed that the recovery,
reform and reinvention of Southeast Asian
economies require increased marketisation and
continued large inflows of foreign direct
investment (ASEAN-ISIS, 1998).
A continuing economic meltdown in Indonesia can
have important regional implications. Having
secured IMF support, Korea and Thailand should be
able to insulate themselves to some extent from
this effect, but other countries are more
vulnerable. The Indonesian crisis is no longer a
financial crisis only but this has been
compounded by a political crisis. It remains to
be seen in how far this crisis can be contained.
The deep financial crisis in Indonesia resulted
from a process of multiple equilibria involving
contagion, panic, and mishandling (Radelet and
Sachs, 1998). Its recovery process is likely to
be one of multiple equilibria as well. At various
stages of the implementation of economic reforms
a failure to produce visible political reforms
will result in a stagnation of the process or
even an economic setback.
- Institutional
Development
Indonesia and other East Asian countries will
experience a new round of competition among
regional economies, competition for export
markets and competition for foreign investments.
China, and perhaps India, will be at the leading
drivers in this new race. The race is to compete
in enhancing the economy's competitiveness. What
is competitiveness made of? The World Economic
Forum (WEF) has greatly influenced government and
business perceptions of a nation's
competitiveness through the annual publication of
its WEF Competitive Indices (see, for instance
WEF, 1997). The indices are made up of eight
clusters of structural characteristics. These
are: (a) openness to international trade and
finance; (b) the role of government budget and
regulation; (c) development of financial markets;
(d) quality of infrastructure; (e) quality of
technology; (f) quality of business management;
(g) labour market flexibility and human resources
development; and, (h) quality of judiciary and
political institutions. The main point to make is
that competitiveness appears to be signified not
only by policies but also by institutions that
promote and sustain long-term growth. In his
cursory examination, Tan (1998) detected that
among East Asian economies, the three countries
that have been hit hardest by the crisis,
Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand, have indeed
experienced a gradual deterioration in their
international competitiveness (as measured by the
WEF Competitive Index) over the past five years.
In Thailand and Korea, real appreciation of the
currency has been a factor in their declining
competitiveness, but in all three countries
institutional weaknesses are thought to have been
an important source.
The concept of competitiveness, as employed by
WEF, implies an activist role by the government
in such areas as raising the level of technology,
nation-wide and at the firm level. The creation
of national systems of innovation to facilitate
the process of diffusion and creation of new
technologies does require active government
involvement, if only at the initial stages.
Beyond this task, there has always been a strong
temptation on the part of many governments to
actively engage in the industrialisation drive. A
commitment to open economic policies, which is an
important element in the competitiveness index,
may now exercise greater constraint to what
governments can do.
A great deal of the analyses on the causes of the
crisis has pointed to institutional weaknesses
and deficiencies in many East Asian economies.
This may not have been apparent before (McMullen,
1997). These countries have been successful in
encouraging high savings and investment,
entrepreneurship and market activity without the
establishment of formal property rights, rule of
law, and a capable and clean civil service. This
has been the case because new and large
opportunities and incentives have been created by
the introduction of major reforms. Indonesia in
the mid-1960s and China in the late 1970s
illustrate this point at its best.
To varying degrees East Asian countries have
failed to meet subsequent institutional
challenges. As market activities are expanding
and become more complex formal provisions of good
governance by the government ensures the
continuation of economic growth and an improved
distribution of the fruits of development. The
crisis has greatly exposed the consequences of
weak formal provision of good governance,
particularly the concentration of economic
activities and growth around a clientelist,
patronage system that benefits only those that
are 'insiders'. Such a system produces an
increasingly unsatisfactory outcome over time, in
terms of distribution of the fruits of
development as well as the sense of fairness and
justice on the part of the citizens. McMullen has
argued that in most societies there is a need at
a fairly early point in the growth process to
institute formal rule of law, property rights,
enforcement of contracts, fair adjudication of
disputes, a competent civil service and other
characteristics of good governance in the public
sector. These need to be complemented by good
corporate governance such as transparency,
disclosure, accounting standards,
responsibilities of corporate directors and
executives, and shareholder's rights. It also
covers relationships between government officials
and corporations, including the allocation of
financial resources and the even-handed
enforcement of laws and regulations.
For many developing countries making the
commitment to good governance would appear to be
of a tall order. It is indeed not an easy task,
but there needs to be a clear understanding of
its critical importance in managing a society
that becomes increasingly more complex as a
result of economic growth. After it is property
identified and defined, good governance should be
placed on the nation's development agenda. It may
not be necessary to develop them simultaneously
and it also may not be advisable to immediately
set the highest standards. Of importance is
steady progress towards higher standards over
time. Equally important is their firm
implementation and enforcement. Indonesia, for
example, has introduced since the early 1990s a
series of laws designed to improve corporate
governance. The Corporate Law of 1995 has quite
high standards, similar to those practised in
advanced industrialised countries. Yet, it is of
little use if not enforced. A more modest law but
fully enforced would have made a significant
contribution to establishing the habit of good
corporate governance. Many developing societies
continue to have weak enforcement mechanisms and
a poor quality judiciary. This is an important
element of public policy that has been overlooked
in the World Bank's 1993 Miracle study.
A reassessment of the Miracle study in light of
the crisis has underlined the importance of
adherence to macroeconomics fundamentals, which
has been one of the study's main conclusions. It
suggests, however, that the concept of
'fundamentals' that is more appropriate for a
high growth strategy will have to be broadened to
include the quality of the legal system,
regulatory capacity, and intercountry
co-operation. This broadened concept, called
'augmented fundamentals' (World Bank, 1997), has
yet to explicitly include the broader range of
good governance policies, procedures, and
practices. It will be useful if the World Bank
can bring the issues of good governance on the
agenda of the international community. The World
Economic Forum is already doing that, and
together they can help raise the awareness of
governments on the importance of good governance.
But in the final analysis good governance must
result from efforts within the society itself. It
cannot be imposed upon a society through the use
of external pressures. Asia Pacific after the
crisis can be the place for the development of
regional and international co-operation agendas
that address these issues. There is definitely a
role for APEC here.
- International
Co-operation.
It is a significant development that intercountry
co-operation is seen as an important element in
the augmented fundamentals. Intercountry,
regional or multilateral co-operation processes
are important avenues for socialising such ideas
and concepts as good governance. More
importantly, the exchanges of views on these
ideas and concepts can result in greater
understanding of the need for standards or
benchmarks that may vary according to particular,
specified conditions. The crisis has only begun
to arouse the attention of various regional and
international fora on this new dimension and
agenda of co-operation in a globalised world.
Initiatives taken to date have been modest. The
so-called Manila Framework of November 1997,
drafted by Finance and Central Bank Deputies from
some APEC economies, now known as the Manila
Group, focuses on more immediate tasks to contain
the crisis through the development of a regional
surveillance mechanism. It also establishes an
approach for rescuing affected economies and
containing the crisis that relies primarily on
the role of multilateral financial institutions.
These suggestions have been further developed in
the follow-up meeting of the Manila Group in
Tokyo in March 1998. The IMF and the ADB have
been drawn in to provide the framework for the
surveillance. It may not have been immediately
obvious to participating governments that a
regional surveillance mechanism can only function
effectively if it is supported by a commonly
accepted set of standards or benchmarks. It is on
the basis of those standards or benchmarks that
governments can legitimately 'interfere' in the
affairs and policies of another country.
This regional surveillance mechanism can become
the forerunner of an international surveillance
mechanism that has been proposed by the U.S.
Secretary of the Treasury. The objective is to
ensure that country risks premiums are more
accurately based. It would make available
substantial expansion of the types of economic
and financial data, including foreign exchange
exposure and the maturity structure of public and
private debt. It also would formulate minimum
world standards for banking systems, accounting
methods, bankruptcy regimes and corporate
governance. These standards would not be made
compulsory. However, countries that fail to meet
the standards for either information flow or
financial regulation would suffer because wide
publicity would ensure that this would be
factored into market assessments. The plan is to
entrust the surveillance upon a joint venture
between the IMF and the World Bank. It is
questionable whether their constitution could
allow these multilateral institutions to
effectively undertake this task
In Southeast Asia, ASEAN has also begun with
non-controversial initiatives such as the use of
regional currencies to finance intra-regional
trade. In December 1997 the ASEAN finance
ministers decided to launch a process of ASEAN
Finance Ministers' which includes a wide range of
activities, including a general exchange of notes
on practical experience, monitoring, and
surveillance. In the context of the Manila Group,
the ASEAN process is thought to function as a
caucus. If implemented effectively, it will
transform ASEAN into a different kind of regional
organisation. This development has been
anticipated and it is believed that that the time
may have come for ASEAN to be ready to put aside
its sacred principle of non-interference. It has
been an embarrassment to ASEAN that is has
performed poorly in dealing with such important
regional issues as the financial crisis and the
haze problem caused by forest fires. It
recognises that it must institute fundamental
political and institutional changes in order to
stay relevant. This implies that ASEAN member
states must become 'more comfortable with
constructive and discreet comments on each
other's policies, especially those which impinge
negatively on neighbours' (ASEAN-ISIS, 1998). It
will not be easy to convince ASEAN governments
that the principle of 'constructive involvement '
should now replace the more familiar principle of
non-interference in each other's affairs.
However, short of accepting this, ASEAN cannot
consider the desirability of engaging members in
greater macroeconomic co-ordination and policy
harmonisation. The crisis demonstrates the need
for ASEAN, and developing countries in general,
to develop habits and mechanism of co-operation
for maintaining macroeconomic stability, a task
that has become all the more difficult in a
globalised world. The contagion of the 1997
crisis is likely to haunt the ASEAN members for a
long time. This may have a favourable effect on
ASEAN co-operation. Not all developing countries
are in this fortunate situation.
- Good
Governance.
The crisis has firmly placed the issue of good
governance on the national agenda of the affected
countries, especially in Southeast Asia. Good
governance should be on the top of the list of
tasks in the recovery, reform and reinvention of
Southeast Asia. Good governance is seen as a
prerequisite for sound macroeconomic policies. In
regard to this, the strengthening of institutions
of checks and balances in the states' system is
found critical. Another important component of
the policy is maintenance of social stability and
peace (ASEAN-ISIS, 1998).
Good governance implies that authority is based
on the rule of law, its policies are transparent,
and it is accountable to the society, and it also
must be based on institutions and not on the
wishes of persons. Last but not least, it should
adhere to the principle that all men (and women)
are equal before the law (Wanandi, 1998). The
important policy question is how governments can
be induced to make a workable and credible
commitment to good governance. The immediate
follow-up question issue is whether good
governance can be promoted only in a democratic
setting. Singapore and Hong Kong immediately come
to mind as examples where good governance can be
present in a non-democratic environment. Are they
models for East Asia to emulate? Good governance
in these two economies is clearly manifested,
first and foremost, in their clean civil
administration of government, based on stringent
rule of law laid down by the British. The good
news is that good governance is a possibility in
the region, although no local word for it exists
as yet in most East Asian societies. The bad news
is that both Singapore and Hong Kong are likely
to be the exception, by virtue of being
city-states. Their geopolitical situation may
also provide an explanation.
It is difficult to imagine that in other East
Asian countries good governance can be promoted
in the absence of democratic developments because
in these more diverse societies there is a
greater need for flexibility and participatory
processes. Even a 'soft' authoritarian system
cannot accommodate this need.
Conventional wisdom has suggested that in an
ideal development, political development should
proceed behind economic development. This will
guarantees that political development does not
create an obstacle for economic development. The
basic assumption here is that political
development creates instability. Many governing
elites have used this assumption as a
justification for postponing political reforms.
It should be recognised that economic development
may also create discrepancies and inequalities
initially that can be destabilising as well.
Greater participatory processes that result from
an opening of the political system can help
alleviate the problems created by economic
discrepancies. Therefore, political development
should go hand-in-hand with economic development.
The need for good governance at a relatively
early stage in the economic growth process
suggests that political development and
democratisation must be introduced earlier rather
than later.
How far and how fast political development should
be pursued in Indonesia and in other East Asian
countries will depend on each country's history,
tradition and stage of development. The Korean
model of opening up the political system only
after a certain level of economic development has
been achieved can no longer be applied in much of
Southeast Asia today. The crisis has pointed to
the need to hasten the process of political
development. One wonders, however, whether there
is indeed an observable relationship between
economic development and political development,
or between economic liberalisation and political
liberalisation, and what that relationship is.
Crouch and Morley (1993) developed the argument
that there exist a dynamic comprising three
distinct but interrelated processes, in which
initially economic growth drives social
mobilisation, then social mobilisation drives
political mobilisation, and finally political
mobilisation drives regime change.
In view of observable exceptions to the overall
pattern of political change, such as the case of
Singapore on the one hand and the Philippines on
the other hand, Crouch and Morley listed a number
of factors that appear to have an influence on
the political outcomes of the process. These
factors include such geographic factors as size
and internal regional tensions, such social
factors as the inherited class structure and
communalism, as well as such political factors as
political institutions and elite cohesion, plus
political culture and the external environment.
It is perhaps changes in the external environment
that will create greater pressures for change. As
economies are opening up and the process of
globalisation is accelerating, individuals,
communities or societies tend to feel more
insecure and therefore demand greater
participation in the political process in order
to assure that their security and interests are
being protected.
The process of democratisation and political
development involve trial and error, and some
instability is inherent in this process. That is
why they should be undertaken in a gradual
fashion, and the process needs to be based on
some consensus. In most East Asian economies
there is already a critical mass of the middle
class that can form the basis for making the
consensus and for initiating the process of
democratisation.
The 'grand sequencing' issue is after all perhaps
not a matter of dramatic choices. Economic
development and political development can go in
tandem and reinforce each other, if an orderly
process can be allowed to take place. The concern
is that political development can be highly
unpredictable, and once the dam is broken, the
water will immediately flood the area. This
metaphor, however, would only apply if no
consensus has been attempted and society's
aspirations cannot find their outlet. This being
the case, an anarchical situation obtains; that
is when the dam breaks. Forming the consensus is
an ongoing effort. It can be likened to an
opening of the dam bit by bit. How far and how
fast this process should go is a matter that
cannot be engineered in advance. They are matters
to be settled within the process itself.
Most East Asian countries experience enormous
obstacles in this process of consensus building.
The governing elite tends to hold back the
process, while the emerging middle class wants a
faster process. It has been most unfortunate that
the governing elite often opposes the demand for
faster development by branding it as being
influenced by western values. They then come up
with counter suggestions based on a more
appropriate set of Asian values in defence of
their unwillingness to move. Some East Asian
leaders have used Asian values as justification
for imposing a more paternalistic and repressive
political system. Good governance is what all
societies long for. Genuine efforts at
democratisation and a firm political will are
important to institute and develop good
governance. A democratic environment is necessary
to underpin a credible commitment to good
governance.
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