(14 February, 2001)Introduction
Most ASEAN members can be called "globalizers." This attribute can be given to countries that have adopted the strategy and policy of globalization, namely those that are aimed at integrating the country into the global economy. Globalization is understood as both an evolving structural condition of the world economy and a conscious national policy, or as both a description of a state of affairs and a prescription for strategy and policy. In ASEAN globalization as a policy or strategy is largely seen as a response to globalization as a state of affairs (Soesastro, 2000). ASEAN's decision in 1992 to form an ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) was a decision by the six members to integrate their economies into the world by acting and working as a group. They consider it wise to do this jointly rather than to follow a "go-it-alone" strategy. Other initiatives, such as the ASEAN Investment Area (AIA), aim at further deepening that cooperation. These decisions were driven by the need to enhance efficiency in order to be able to compete internationally. AFTA and AIA are meant to transform the region into an efficient production and export platform for the global producers. ASEAN's market is the world. All these require that ASEAN be an open region that adheres to the principles of open regionalism.
ASEAN members may no longer be such enthusiastic globalizers the way they were a few years ago. For one thing, the financial crisis has tended to put a break on their globalization effort, particularly in the financial field. Countries in the region are finding it difficult to cope with volatile movements in the capital account of the balance of payments. The impact of a capital account crisis is so much more severe and wide-ranging than that of a current account crisis. The recent financial crisis has shown that contagion is a real threat, and that international rescue efforts not necessarily help the crisis-hit countries to overcome it. There has been much talk about the need for a new international financial architecture as well as the development of regional financial structures to prevent or to deal with future financial crises. ASEAN has instituted a regional surveillance process, but this is still in its infancy and appears to be developing very slowly. Additional initiatives, such as the swap arrangement, are undertaken and are believed to be more effective if undertaken in the context of ASEAN Plus Three cooperation. Much still needs to be worked out before this arrangement has credibility. But even so, various ideas of deeper regional financial cooperation also have been aired, including by ASEAN leaders. These include the idea of a common regional currency. This may be a sign of great desperation rather than based on a clear vision.
ASEAN's global integration process has not come to a halt. In overcoming the crisis, ASEAN governments have decided to continue with the liberalization plan. Nonetheless, this is not going to be a smooth process. The ASEAN Economic Ministers Meeting (AEMM) in Chiang Mai in early October 2000 clearly shows that this process cannot be taken for granted. But efforts to slow down the process or to seal-off particular sectors might not be successful. This is in large part because of the information and communications technology (ICT) revolution. In other words, ICT forces economies to open up. And the industry itself will also have to be opened up.
The Indonesian government, for instance, had to renounce a presidential ruling to include the multi media industry in the list of sectors that are closed to foreign investors because of strong domestic protests. There is a growing belief within the Indonesian public that ICT has become too important a matter to be left to the government. The ICT challenge is a challenge faced by all members of the society because ICT has such a pervasive impact on society. And like in many countries, in Indonesia too there are strong demands to open up the industry for the benefit of the populace.
ASEAN leaders have not ignored the ICT challenge. They have launched the e-ASEAN initiative and have formed an e-ASEAN Task Force. In the words of Roberto R. Romulo, the chairman of the Task Force, its task is that of "expanding digital opportunities and bridging the digital divide" in the region (Romulo, 2000). The mandate is to develop a comprehensive plan that will create the necessary infrastructures to foster the widest application of ICT in society, government, and the economy. He also outlined the four areas for cooperation, namely the development of physical infrastructure, legal and regulatory environment, human capacity, and e-government, i.e. the use of ICT in government. The Task Force has met three times, in March 2000 in the Philippines, April 2000 in Singapore, and August 2000 in Kuala Lumpur. A report has been produced and presented to the ASEAN Informal Summit in Singapore in November 2000.
As ASEAN has also entered into the ICT age, this essay examines the social and political impacts of ICT. An examination of these impacts will be necessary in defining and designing measures to deal with them. When ASEAN members adopted their globalization strategy in the 1980s they have focused their attention on what can be termed "first-order adjustments" that involve the process of opening up the society to the forces of globalization. They paid insufficient attention to "second-order adjustments", namely of coping with domestic social and political changes and challenges that come as a consequence of opening up (Soesastro, 1998). ICT is one of the main drivers of globalization. As its impact on society is believed to be pervasive, "second-order adjustments" must be incorporated in any policy, plan, and program at the national as well as at the regional levels. ASEAN's globalization strategy needs to be complemented with a digital strategy.
Understanding the social and political impacts of ICT
The growth of ICT is exceeding our understanding not only of its economic impacts but more seriously of its social and political impacts. It appears that nothing can halt the growth of ICT. Countries and societies can take part in this development if they have the physical infrastructure and the human resources. If they take part, they should accept the consequences, but they can also take measures to eliminate or lessen the negative consequences. There is definitely a trade-off to be made. They cannot have the infrastructure and the human resources but constrain or limit them in their use and access. If people can have access to the Net, they cannot be told what Web sites they cannot enter. Some governments continue to operate firewalls on the Internet to block access to Web sites they find objectionable.
Studies of globalization policies in ASEAN countries have shown that governments adopted the globalization policy to obtain economic gains from the process, but they do not welcome the social and political consequences of globalization. In some countries there are efforts to shield off the society by denying people full access to international television programs, while other countries allow satellite discs to be installed even in the rural areas. In other countries a revival of ideology and nationalism is thought to be effective to making the society immune to external political, social and cultural influences. Both attempts have not been particularly successful.
The impacts of ICT are felt at different levels and they are felt differently at those different levels. At the individual level, those with access to it believe that there are only gains to be had from ICT. At the community and national level there is the problem of disparity or divide between those with access and those with no access to ICT. Within nations there is likely to be a different appreciation of ICT between the government and the population. In more closed societies governments still try to shield off the population from information flows from abroad that can come from anywhere in the world for 24 hours a day. Governments also feel threatened by their inability to control many transactions that take place in cyberspace. Among nations the problem is also that of the growing divide between ICT rich and ICT poor nations: the digital divide. At the opening of the meeting of the ASEAN information ministers in Hanoi in October 2000, Vietnam's Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Manh Cam stated that "information and the right to access to information have become an urgent need for all nations," but that this should not come at the expense of either "national sovereignty" or the "will of the people."
The social and political impacts of ICT that have been given the greatest attention to thus far are those that result from the digital divide within and among nations. The concern is with the widening of this gap. Minister Moggie of Malaysia has argued that economic disparities in the information age are wider than in the industrial age (Moggie, 2000). Social and political problems arise because of segregation between users and non-users of ICT. He then lists the various prerequisites for nations to overcome this digital divide. These include: existence of the necessary basic infrastructure (electricity and communications), the availability of ICT skilled manpower, the existence of a strong content industry (supplying content to the Web), an established regulatory and policy framework, and the necessary mindset and commitments of society to support and embrace ICT.
Malaysia's policy to bridge the divide is by developing a Universal Service Program (USP) that is based on availability, accessibility and affordability. Telekom Malaysia Berhad has been designated the sole Universal Service Provider for an interim period from 1 January 1999 to 31 December 2000. In January 2001 a new USP will come into being and this will require all network operators to contribute to the Universal Service Fund. One policy objective is to increase the telephone penetration rate, in particular in rural areas.
In many other ASEAN countries the concern about access to ICT relates to the interest to continuously transforming the "old economy" into a more efficient and competitive "new economy". There are different concepts and definitions of the new economy, but the one used here refers to an economy, or sectors or segments thereof, that uses ICT to raise productivity to sustain non-inflationary growth. With the exception perhaps of Singapore, in most ASEAN countries the new economy still constitutes a small part of the economy. In other words, these economies are predominantly still of the old economy type.
In the new economy transactions are undertaken through the Internet, in the form of e-commerce. It is the Internet that manifests the most pervasive effect of ICT on production and society. Information too is coming into the homes through the Internet. Internet traffic now doubles perhaps every 3 to 6 months. From 1989 to 1995, it doubled every 12 months and in 1997 it did so every 6 to 9 months (Steering Committee on Research Opportunities to Economic and Social Impacts on Computing and Communications, hereafter referred to as Steering Committee, 1997). According to the Internet Industry Almanac, by year-end 2000 Internet users worldwide are projected to reach 327 million. Of these, 40 percent is in the United States. The top 15 countries in Internet users account for 82 percent of worldwide Internet users. Amongst these 15 countries are three East Asian countries, namely Japan, China and Korea. In Japan there are about 22 million users, in China close to 4 million, and in Korea about 3 million (Computer Industry Almanac Inc., 2000).
Estimates and projections about Internet users vary greatly. Measurement problems arise due to definitions of "use" and "access". Most of the data have been generated by market survey organizations and thus, appear to have some upward bias in making projections. Early attempts at collecting the relevant data by scholars appear to be unsustainable (see, e.g. the data collected under the Asia Web Watch, 1998). The International Data Corporation (IDC) projects that the number of Asian Internet users excluding Japan will top 40 million by the end of 2000. It projects an annual growth rate of 40.6 percent, and predicts that by 2004, Internet users in Asia, excluding Japan, would be as high as 141 million. IDC also projected that e-commerce purchases in the Asia Pacific region will exceed US$ 7.3 billion in 2000 and may grow even faster at 128 percent annually until 2004. These fantastic growth rates projections by IDC have taken into account continued falling Internet access rates, the proliferation of free Internet access providers, better telecommunications infrastructure, and the increasing interest of old economy companies in the Internet (Financial Gateway to Asia, hereafter referred to as Gateway, 2000). Forrester Research predicted that e-commerce in the Asia Pacific region will reach US$ 1.6 trillion by 2004 (Asia Internet News, hereafter referred to as Asia Internet, 2000).
The most fantastic projections have been made in regard to China, where Internet use "is going nuts" (Gateway, 2000). According to Gateway reports, netizens, or Internet users, in China total about 17 million today and will reach 250 million in 2010. This implies a penetration of only 20 percent of the population in 2010. Forrester Research estimated China's online population at 8.9 million in early 2000, and e-commerce transactions amounting to only US$ 40 million in early 2000 but will increase to US$ 4 billion within a few years (Asia Internet, 2000). In Taiwan, Internet users are estimated at 6.4 million in 2000, with the young and higher-income groups making up the bulk of the online population (Gateway, 2000). In Japan, every working day nearly 50,000 Japanese sign up for a wireless Internet service provided by the NTT DoCoMo's i-Mode Internet-capable mobile phone service. NTT DoCoMo already has 9.5 million subscribers and targets 13 million subscribers by March 2001 (Gateway, 2000).
In the ASEAN region developments appear to be highly uneven. Singapore has the highest Internet penetration rate amongst all East Asian economies and perhaps also worldwide. This is primarily so because of Singapore's small population and its city-state nature. Estimates show that 53 percent of Singaporean households are connected to the Internet, more than the 50 percent in the United States. About 46 percent Singaporeans are Internet users. This estimate covers individuals aged 15 and over living in a household connected to the Internet. In Korea, with Internet users increasing rapidly to reach about 15 million in 2000 (highest estimate), Internet users now account for 42 percent of the population. The figure is 36 percent for Taiwan (Asia Internet, 2000). Studies have shown that income and educational status account for differences in the use of computers and the Internet (Steering Committee, 1997).
Due to their small size, Singapore and Hong Kong are potentially e-business leaders in the region. Amongst East Asian countries excluding Japan, both Singapore and Hong Kong belong to the top 20 countries in the world with the highest number of computers and Internet connections per 1000 people. In terms of Internet connections, Hong Kong ranked 12 and Singapore 19, but in terms of computers, Singapore ranked 11 and Hong Kong 14 (IMD, 1999).
In contrast to Singapore's heavy penetration, in the Philippines, in 1998 only 1 percent of households have Internet access (Asia Internet, 2000). But the Philippines has made its mark in the cyber world by being associated with the "I Love You" virus. The Philippines is also a step ahead of many ASEAN countries in that it has introduced an e-commerce law. Table 1 compares access to ICT by the people in ASEAN countries and other East Asian countries. India is also included in the table. The table shows that by far Singapore and Malaysia have the best ICT infrastructure amongst the ASEAN countries, whereas the new members have very poor ICT infrastructure. The data in the table refer to 1998. Since then there could have been significant developments in some, if not all of those, countries. It is likely, however, that the gap within the region may have widened as progress in Singapore and Malaysia tend to be faster than in countries with very underdeveloped ICT infrastructure. Northeast Asia may have progressed much more, and it is also possible that Southeast Asia will be lagging behind Northeast Asia. There may be a greater digital divide developing inside Southeast Asia as well as between Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia.
Table 2 compares the cost of a local call and an international call (to the US). The cost is lowest in Singapore and Hong Kong and is prohibitively high in such new ASEAN members as Myanmar. Availability, accessibility and affordability appear to go hand in hand .
Physical infrastructure is basic to creating access to ICT. The Internet boom in Korea has been aided by the availability of an extensive telecommunications network that was built in the 1990s. At the time the adoption of the broadband seemed to be wasteful overinvestment (Goad, 2000). Now the Korean government is undertaking a US$ 35 billion high-speed telecommunications-infrastructure project. When completed in 2005, about 95 percent of Korean households will have Internet access (Bremner and Moon, 2000). Internet revenues, including network services, direct e-commerce and advertising, are expected to reach US$ 25 billion in Korea in 2005, about a quarter of the total Internet revenues in developing East Asia (Salomon Smith Barney, cited in Goad, 2000).
But there are still problems of access caused by language problems. Search engines and Internet domain names are all written in English (or at least in Roman letters). This constraint, however, will be removed sooner rather than later as softwares are being created to overcome the language barrier (Dolven, 2000). In countries such as Indonesia, the ICT penetration has practically made English a second language in the urban centers. Information about Indonesia coming from within Indonesia itself as well as other information generated in Indonesia is largely written in English and is aimed at "fellow netizens" from all over the world. Indonesian President Abdurrahman Wahid seemed to have resented the suggestions made by Prime Minister Mahathir at the Informal Summit in Singapore in November 2000 that the use of English becomes a necessity. This negative reaction is rather surprising but may be explained by Wahid's overall rather nationalistic outburst during the Summit, which in turn may have been caused by political difficulties at home.
While this language issue is important, and has implications for education policy, it is the problem of content in the Web that has aroused much public policy debate. The downside of the Internet has been illustrated by the existence of Web sites teaching people ho to make bombs. There are Web sites that propogate terrorists causes as well religious fundamentalism. Governments, especially of countries in which they still have control over the media, are especially nervous about content that discredits governments and endangers "national security".
In today's information age, information can no longer be monopolized. Internet content can no longer be treated as a public policy issue. With information coming directly into people's homes, what people reads is really becoming a private choice. The alternative to allowing this is for a country to stay as an ICT-underdeveloped country. The cost is to be left behind. China is trying to grope and cope with this issue. The government still blocks some Web sites that it considers politically "unhealthy", but it sees ICT as key to China's future global economic competitiveness. That is why the government actively promotes the awareness and use of the Internet by developing various government-sponsored programs through the Internet. At the end of 1999 the government held the first Miss Net contest to raise the awareness of women who currently only make up 15 percent of Internet users in China (Lawrence, 1999).
There is a lot of good and useful content in the Internet. The growth of health-care Web sites has increased patients knowledge about drugs and symptoms that could change the way patients and doctors interact (Bickers, 1999). A report on the impact of the Internet on the Chinese society concluded that the Internet has subtly changed the way the Chinese interact with each other, their government and the world. It has unleashed entrepeneurship even in some of the more remote parts of the country, and local governments have become more creative by using the Internet to attract foreign investors. Even People's Daily, the mouthpiece of the Communist Party has a Web site that has moved out of the world of propaganda into the world of commercial publicity. It hosted an on-line forum, something that is rather revolutionary for an organization "whose role always has been to disseminate the party line in one direction -- down" (Lawrence, 1999).
Significant changes have also begun to take place in Korea. The new dot.com ventures that have recently mushroomed have definitely changed the corporate scenery in Korea. The chaebols are losing a lot of people to the new Internet companies. Many of the conglomerate's trading activities will be replaced by the growing numbers of Web trading sites. It remains to be seen whether the expansion of the new economy in Korea could break through decades of deeply entrenched business practices (Bremner and Moon, 2000). The ICT revolution is also changing corporations themselves. It also affects the nature of work and the work place the way steam engine and electricity had done in the past. Much still needs to be studies in order for proper changes to be introduced in the area of work policies and practices. The school and the nature of education will also be influenced greatly by the ICT revolution. This too should be a subject of serious study in ASEAN. Changes in Northeast Asia are likely to be more rapid than in Southeast Asia. ASEAN countries can learn from the experiences in Northeast Asia. Perhaps this can become an agenda in the recently proposed e-Asia initiative to involve the ASEAN Plus Three countries. APEC has also added to its agenda various cooperation schemes to expand the digital opportunities and to reduce the digital divide in the region. The meeting in Brunei in November 2000 has produced an APEC Leaders Initiative in this field. ASEAN should play an active role in the implementation of this initiative.
In developed societies much of the discussion on the social impact of ICT has focused on issues of privacy, intellectual property rights, free speech and education. There is also the concern about the impact of ICT on wage inequalities and its attendant social and political implications. In developing societies focus should be given on expanding opportunities. The impacts of ICT on education and entrepreneurship, especially in SMEs (small and medium enterprises), are believed to be positive if access can be assured. The underprivileged and the poor have yet no access to ICT, but ICT should be able to reach them. Universal service needs to be introduced in all ASEAN countries. The agenda for ASEAN appears to be set. The development of physical infrastructure should produce more equal access to ICT for the population at large. This should be supported by a conducive legal and regulatory framework as well as the development of social and economic infrastructures. However, as Minister Moggie of Malaysia argued, it is necessary to change mindset and commitments. This may be the most difficult task to achieve. How can ASEAN cooperation contribute to this task?
Concluding Note: Empowerment and Democratization
ICT and the Internet promise to enhance productivity and economic competitiveness. The race for expanding the new economy is visible everywhere. But ICT and the Internet also create and expand the "new polity" as they unleash forces for democratic change in many areas. From an individual perspective the Internet brings with it empowerment to its user as it opens up access to knowledge, information and various services that can no longer be monopolized, particularly by the state. In a way ICT can be seen as an instrument of democratization. In addition ICT can enhance human security.
The government perspective that is inherently state-centric sees in the Internet many potential threats to state security. The security of the state, in fact often treated as identical to the security of the regime, remains a powerful argument for protection against the forces of globalization and democratization. Globalization can be used as an excuse to strengthen a country's political identity and integrity, which often translates into authoritarian, paternalistic, and essentially non-democratic system. The promotion of Asian values by some leaders in ASEAN some time ago can be seen as an attempt to justify the adoption of an open economic policy but maintaining heavy state control over political, social, and cultural developments.
ASEAN cooperation based on the idea of "sovereignty-enhancing regionalism" is also likely to be affected by globalization. It remains to be seen whether this kind of regionalism can be sustained if it means an extension to the region of the protection of state sovereignty. This is analogous to the extension of national import substitution or protection policies to the region through the establishment of a discriminatory regional free trade area.
It is legitimate for ASEAN countries to seek to resort to regional cooperation arrangements to reassert the power of the state in coping with the social and economic impacts of globalization, especially in protecting the little people and the weak. The state must have the capacity to develop, manage, and secure the financing of social safety net programs. But this reassertion of power by the state through regional cooperation can be misused to protect the state from the need to open up politically. Regional cooperation must not reinforce the prevailing structure in the nexus between development and security that tends to justify and sustain authoritarian regimes.
The mindset and commitment to support and embrace ICT requires a redefinition of the nexus between development and security, away from its current state-centric nature. ASEAN cooperation can help in the development ICT physical infrastructure, ICT skilled manpower as well as the legal and regulatory framework. But frankly speaking, it has very little to offer in terms of changing the mindset that is a pre-requisite for a successful adoption of ICT and the growth of the new economy. This change in mindset has to begin at home in each of ASEAN member countries. Different ASEAN countries have different capacities to "engineer" and "control" societal developments. Some countries may be able to develop an effective national information infrastructure or infostructure that can be used to protect against cyberpornography or other undesirable influences (Low, 2000). A common social policy that fits all is not likely to be found for the diverse ASEAN members, but ASEAN's agenda can focus on sharing of experiences and best practices as well as cooperation in the expansion of basic infrastructure.
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